Election Night in Israel: Netanyahu Lost His Majority

Exit polls are projections, not final results. The final count is expected by October 30, and official results come out November 4.

The numbers

The polls closed at 10 p.m. All three TV channels — Channel 12, Channel 13, and Kan 11 — ran exit polls, and all three agree.

Netanyahu’s side won 50 seats. The side running against him won 52 or 53. The Arab parties won 17 or 18 seats — the most they have ever won.

His own party, Likud, is still the biggest single party, with 24 or 25 seats. The party led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief, came second with 21 to 23.

To form a government, you need 61 seats out of 120. Nobody has 61.

What it means

So, did he lose? Yes. His side finished second, and with these numbers he cannot put together a government unless someone switches sides.

Netanyahu stays prime minister for now. He runs the country as a caretaker until a new government is sworn in. Losing does not remove him tonight.

Losing also does not send him to jail. Only his trial can do that — a conviction, or a plea deal.

What he loses is protection. In office, he could delay his trial, and his majority could pass laws to shield him. Out of office, that shield is gone.

His partner Ben Gvir got weaker, too. Ben Gvir’s party shrank to just 6 or 7 seats. His power was never his own — it existed only because Netanyahu needed his votes. If this government falls, that power goes with it.

The Arab parties hold the keys

The Arab parties won 17 or 18 seats — the most they have ever won. That makes them the ones who decide what happens next.

Here is why. Netanyahu’s side has 50 seats. He needs 61. That means he needs 11 more seats from somewhere, and the Arab parties are the only group big enough to give them to him.

But look at how they campaigned. Both Arab lists ran on one main promise: bring Netanyahu down. Mansour Abbas, who leads one of them — Ra’am — said out loud that he would not join a government with Netanyahu. On election day, Abbas said it plainly: “Our vote will change the government.”

Netanyahu spent the campaign warning his own voters that the other side would need Arab support. He used the Arab parties as a scarecrow. Now his only road back to 61 runs through them.

So the people Netanyahu needs most are the people who ran against him hardest. The chances they turn around and save him are very low.

That is what makes them the deciders. They can back the other side from outside. They can back nobody, and force another election. The one thing they promised their voters not to do is keep Netanyahu in power.

The winner’s plan

The man whose side won is Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief. He is already talking about what he does next. None of it is a surprise — this is the plan he ran on, and he repeated the main pieces today.

Take power fast

Eisenkot says Netanyahu’s role ends as soon as the results are in, and the next government should be put together quickly — not after months of games.

Build one wide government

He wants one big coalition of the parties that ran against Netanyahu — right, center, and left together — what he calls a government of the Zionist majority. He has said he will never sit in a government led by Netanyahu. And he has said he will not build his government on the Arab parties’ votes.

Move even without 61

Eisenkot has said it plainly: even if his side falls short of a majority, they will still work to remove Netanyahu and form a government, rather than hand him another term.

An official inquiry into October 7

This is his signature promise. A state commission of inquiry into how October 7 happened — set up right away. Netanyahu refused to allow one for three years. Eisenkot says the truth comes first.

End Hamas rule in Gaza

Within 18 months of taking office, Eisenkot pledges, Hamas will no longer rule Gaza or hold real military power there. He repeated that promise today, standing in one of the towns Hamas attacked.

Everyone serves

He vows no compromise on the draft law: ultra-Orthodox men will be called up for military service like everyone else, the way the courts have ordered.

What happens next

Now the bargaining starts. Each side will try to build 61. The Arab parties, with their record 17 or 18 seats, hold numbers neither side can ignore.

One caution: exit polls have been wrong before, and small parties near the cutoff can still move seats as the real ballots are counted. But on the number that matters, all three channels agree: Netanyahu’s bloc has 50, and nobody has 61.

The full count finishes by October 30, and official results come out November 4. We will update this page when the numbers are final.

The whole story of this election — the treason complaint, the international warrant, and the trial waiting for him — is in our election-day report: Election Day in Israel: The Treason Complaint, the Warrant, and the Trial.