PoliVion
The full ledger

Where Did UDP’s $53.6 Million Go?

Every dollar of the United Democracy Project’s 2026 independent expenditures, accounted for — by candidate, race, party, and month. Nothing estimated, nothing missing.

The full ledger: every candidate

Twelve candidates. Seven races. $53,589,576 across 153 FEC-reported transactions. Here is all of it:

UDP independent expenditures by candidate, 2026 cycle (FEC)
CandidateRaceDirectionAmountShare
Abdul El-SayedMI SenateOppose$20,234,525
37.8%
Haley StevensMI SenateSupport$10,498,735
19.6%
Adrian BoafoMD-05 HouseSupport$5,734,013
10.7%
Melissa Conyears-ErvinIL-07 HouseSupport$4,968,501
9.3%
Thomas MassieKY-04 HouseOppose$3,576,968
6.7%
Cori BushMO-01 HouseOppose$2,457,791
4.6%
Tom MalinowskiNJ-07 HouseOppose$2,326,917
4.3%
Aisha WahabCA-14 HouseOppose$1,642,140
3.1%
Melissa HernandezCA-14 HouseSupport$825,293
1.5%
Wesley BellMO-01 HouseSupport$685,626
1.3%
Ed GallreinKY-04 HouseSupport$579,319
1.1%
Jason FriedmanIL-07 HouseOppose$59,748
0.1%
Total$53,589,576100%

FEC independent expenditure filings, 2026 cycle, committee C00799031 (United Democracy Project), amendment-deduplicated by transaction ID, candidates matched by FEC ID. Party of Tom Malinowski was blank in the FEC record; he is a Democrat. Figures as of October 2026.

By race

The twelve candidates fall into seven races — and one race swallowed most of the budget:

UDP independent expenditures by race, 2026 cycle (FEC)
RaceStageAmountShare
MI Senate, Democratic primaryPrimary$30,733,260
57.3%
MD-05 House, Democratic primaryPrimary$5,734,013
10.7%
IL-07 House, Democratic primaryPrimary$5,028,249
9.4%
KY-04 House, Republican primaryPrimary$4,156,287
7.8%
MO-01 House, Democratic primaryPrimary$3,143,417
5.9%
CA-14 HouseOther$2,467,433
4.6%
NJ-07 HouseOther$2,326,917
4.3%
Total$53,589,576100%

By party and direction

Democrats absorbed $47.1 million (87.9%) — but on both sides of the ledger, supporting preferred Democrats and opposing disfavored ones:

UDP independent expenditures by party of targeted candidate (FEC)
To help (support)To defeat (oppose)Total
Democrats$22,712,168$24,394,204$47,106,372
Republicans$579,319$3,576,968$4,156,287
Party not listed*$0$2,326,917$2,326,917
Total$23,291,486$30,298,089$53,589,576

* The FEC record’s party field was blank for Tom Malinowski (NJ-07), a Democrat. Overall: 90.9% of spending was primary-election spending ($48,700,606); 8.9% was classified as “other” ($4,794,349); 0.2% ($94,620) was filed for the general election — one direct-mail filing (disseminated Oct 7, 2026) opposing El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate general.

When it was spent

The spending wasn’t spread evenly — 71% of the entire year’s budget went out in June and July, the Michigan blitz:

UDP independent expenditures by month of dissemination (FEC)
MonthAmountShare
January 2026$2,283,424
4.3%
February 2026$2,366,009
4.4%
March 2026$2,705,733
5.0%
April 2026$1,460,990
2.7%
May 2026$3,934,096
7.3%
June 2026$15,279,020
28.5%
July 2026$22,998,251
42.9%
August 2026$2,467,432
4.6%
October 2026$94,620
0.2%
Total$53,589,576100%

What the ledger shows

Three things stand out once every dollar is on the table:

1. Extreme concentration. Two candidates in one race — El-Sayed and Stevens — account for 57% of the budget. The top four candidates account for 78%. The remaining $11.8 million is spread across eight candidates in six House races. This wasn’t a broad national program; it was one giant bet plus a handful of smaller ones.

2. Primaries, not November. 90.9% of the money targeted primaries, and $94,620 (0.2%) was filed for the general election — one direct-mail filing opposing El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate general. The intervention is about who becomes the nominee — the same pattern our strategy page documents for direct contributions.

3. Both parties’ primaries. The Kentucky spending — $3.6 million to defeat Republican Thomas Massie, $0.6 million to lift his challenger — is the tell that this isn’t about party. It’s about the U.S.-Israel relationship as a litmus test, applied wherever the group sees a threat or an opportunity.

The bottom line: $20.2 million against El-Sayed, $10.5 million for Stevens, $5.7 million for Boafo, $5.0 million for Conyears-Ervin, $3.6 million against Massie — and $8.6 million across the other seven candidates. That’s the whole $53.6 million. Every dollar is in the tables above, sourced to FEC filings.

Frequently asked questions

How much did UDP spend in total in 2026?

$53,589,576 in independent expenditures across 153 FEC-reported transactions, January through October 2026.

Which candidate got the most UDP spending?

Abdul El-Sayed: $20,234,525 opposing him in Michigan’s Senate race — 37.8% of UDP’s entire 2026 budget. (Full case study.)

Did UDP only target Democrats?

No. $47.1 million (87.9%) targeted Democrats — both supporting and opposing them — but $4.2 million went into a Republican primary: $3.6 million opposing Thomas Massie and $0.6 million supporting his challenger Ed Gallrein.

Did any UDP money go to the general election?

$94,620 — one direct-mail filing (disseminated Oct 7, 2026) opposing Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate general election. The rest was primary-election spending (90.9%) or classified as “other” (8.9%).

Key

Documented fact — sourced from FEC filings, official records, news reporting, or the group’s own public statements.

Their stated rationale — what the group itself says its reasons are; not our assessment of them.

PoliVion analysis — our read of what the documented facts add up to.

Understand the group behind the money

What the United Democracy Project is, who runs it, and why its name doesn’t say so.

What is the UDP? → Back to the strategy page