The Texas Senate race is the most expensive Senate primary in state history — over $122 million in ad spending through March 3. GOP incumbent John Cornyn (41.9%) and AG Ken Paxton (40.7%) advance to a May 26 runoff. Democrat James Talarico won the Democratic primary 57%–43% over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. PoliVion scores every candidate on the same formula: policy clarity, donor independence, and governance fit.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. But 2026 is different in two critical ways: a bruising, historically expensive Republican primary has divided the GOP, and the Democratic nominee has raised $20M+ in unprecedented grassroots fashion. Most significantly, if Ken Paxton emerges as the Republican nominee, national analysts believe the race becomes genuinely competitive — his documented record of securities fraud, impeachment, and bribery allegations would define the general election.
Cornyn represents the institutional GOP path: maximum financial resources, establishment endorsements, and the argument that he is the only candidate who guarantees holding the seat in November. Paxton represents the MAGA base path: hardline positions, base mobilization, and the bet that Republican primary voters do not care about his legal history. The runoff electorate is structurally more favorable to Paxton.
James Talarico — State Rep., former teacher · Score: 76% ✅ Recommended
Won primary 57%–43% · $20M+ raised · 98% small-dollar · Zero corporate PAC money
John Cornyn — 4-term incumbent · Score: 33% · March 3: 41.9%
Ken Paxton — TX Attorney General · Score: 5% ⚠ · March 3: 40.7%
Wesley Hunt eliminated (13.5%) · Trump has not endorsed either candidate
Ken Paxton carries the most documented integrity record of any Senate candidate in the current cycle. PoliVion applies ip_fraud:25 for his securities fraud settlement (2015 indictment, settled 2024: $271K restitution + 100 hours community service) and ip_p2p:20 for the Nate Paul bribery allegations (impeachment managers alleged Paxton used his AG office to benefit Paul, who reportedly employed his mistress, in exchange for home renovations and other benefits).
The Texas House voted 121-23 to impeach Paxton in May 2023 on 20 articles — bribery, abuse of office, obstruction. He was acquitted by the Texas Senate in September 2023 on partisan lines. Four senior aides who reported him to the FBI were fired and later received a $3.3 million settlement paid by Texas taxpayers. His wife filed for divorce in July 2025 on "biblical grounds." His biggest career donor, West Texas oil billionaire Tim Dunn, refused to fund his Senate bid.
PoliVion scores reflect documented governance capacity and integrity, not partisan loyalty. Paxton's 1% score reflects sourced, court-record-level documented misconduct.
TrackAIPAC documents $1,837,463 in total Israel lobby support for John Cornyn — $472,750 in direct PAC donations and $1,364,713 in bundled donations. Cornyn has a dedicated AIPAC meeting page on his Senate website and sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. PoliVion applies ip_foreign:30.
| Candidate | Status | Lobby Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn (R) | ⚠ Documented | $1,837,463 | $472,750 PAC + $1,364,713 bundlers. Senate Foreign Relations. ip_foreign:30 — DI floor triggered. |
| Ken Paxton (R) | ✓ Not Listed | $0 documented | Not listed on TrackAIPAC. |
| James Talarico (D) | ✓ Not Listed | $0 documented | Not listed. Zero corporate PAC money verified across entire cycle. |
Sources: TrackAIPAC.com · TrackAIPAC @TrackAIPAC Feb 16, 2026 · Checked March 29, 2026.
The Texas U.S. Senate race features a Republican primary runoff on May 26, 2026 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, following the most expensive Senate primary in Texas history — over $122 million in ad spending through March 3.
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent senator) faces Ken Paxton (former Texas AG) in the May 26 GOP runoff. On the Democratic side, James Talarico won the primary with 57%–43% and raised $20M+ with 98% small-dollar donations.
The Cornyn–Paxton Republican primary attracted over $122 million in advertising spending, driven by significant outside spending on both sides of a contested incumbent vs. hard-right challenger race.
The general election is November 3, 2026. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.