Which Ohio House districts are on the 2026 ballot?

Five competitive Ohio House districts — OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-13, and OH-15 — are all on the May 5, 2026 primary ballot. Democrats are targeting all three Republican seats while defending Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) and Emilia Sykes (OH-13).

When is the Ohio House primary 2026?

The Ohio primary election is May 5, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.

Ohio House Primaries 2026 — OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-13, OH-15 Candidate Scores

+ How PoliVion Scores Candidates 6-component formula + integrity penalty layer · transparency, governance fit, donor independence

View methodology

How PoliVion Scores Candidates

PoliVion scores candidates on transparency, governance fit, and independence from concentrated donor influence — not ideology, charisma, polling position, or party preference. Every candidate is evaluated using the same formula and evidence standards. Score colors reflect ranking tier, not party affiliation.

Base Score = Issue Alignment×0.25 + Donor Independence×0.25 + Data Completeness×0.15 + Position Clarity×0.10 + Budget Feasibility×0.10 + Governance Competence×0.15

Integrity Penalty = Fraud Conflict + Pay-to-Play Risk + Regulatory Overlap + Post-Enforcement Donations + Foreign Influence

Final Score = Adjusted Base Score − Integrity Penalty (then hard caps applied)

Score-based color system: ■ 80%+ Purple ■ 70–79% Green ■ 60–69% Teal ■ 50–59% Amber ■ <50% Red ■ ≤10% RISK — No party branding applied

Issue Alignment ×0.25

How well the candidate addresses the most important current problems facing their constituency — drawn from objective indicators: budget reports, infrastructure needs, healthcare access data, housing affordability, and labor indicators. Not built from campaign rhetoric alone. Sources: Tier 1 state/federal data + Tier 2 journalism/debate + Tier 3 issue pages.

Donor Independence ×0.25

Structural independence from concentrated donor influence. Evaluated using: small-donor share, PAC/super PAC dependence, industry clustering, and foreign-interest-adjacent concerns. Note: if an Integrity Penalty is triggered, a DI floor adjustment is applied before scoring — a candidate with severe integrity conflicts cannot appear structurally clean on donor independence. Sources: FEC filings only.

Data Completeness ×0.15

How much usable public information exists to evaluate the candidate fairly. Missing data is not treated as neutral — low-information candidates cannot score highly by invisibility. Sources: All tiers.

Position Clarity ×0.10

How clearly the candidate states actual positions. Rewards specificity of policy mechanism, implementation detail, and measurable commitments. More text does not equal a better score. Sources: Tier 2 debate/interview + Tier 3 issue pages.

Budget Feasibility ×0.10

Whether major proposals appear financially realistic given stated funding sources, cost estimates, and whether tradeoffs are acknowledged. Sources: CBO projections, Tax Policy Center, state fiscal data + Tier 2 analysis.

Governance Competence ×0.15

Evidence of ability to govern effectively — combining jurisdiction fit (whether the office has authority to execute the candidate's proposals), execution capacity (institutional experience, legislative effectiveness, track record), and policy coherence (internal consistency of the platform). Sources: Tier 1 legislative/voting records + Tier 2 reporting.

Integrity Penalty Layer

Applied after base scoring. Each category is evaluated independently. Penalties reduce the final score directly and cannot be offset by strong base scores. Severe patterns trigger hard caps on the maximum allowable final score.

Fraud ConflictDonations from entities tied to documented fraud, settlement, or enforcement action — especially where governance actions appear favorable to the donor. Scale: 0–40.

Pay-to-Play RiskDonor support materially linked to access, favorable treatment, or political exchange patterns. Scale: 0–30.

Regulatory OverlapDonors who materially benefit from the candidate's direct policy power, oversight role, contracts, or administrative decisions. Scale: 0–30.

Post-Enforcement DonationsDonations that continued or increased after investigation, settlement, enforcement action, or known misconduct. Scale: 0–30.

Foreign InfluenceSupport from foreign-controlled, foreign-government-linked, or foreign-agent entities — including donors, firms, or lobbying vehicles acting on behalf of foreign interests. Scale: 0–40.

Hard caps: Fraud ≥30 + Regulatory Overlap ≥20 → max 54 · Foreign ≥30 → max 54 · Total IP ≥50 → max 49 · Total IP ≥65 → max 39. Scores ≤10 display as RISK.

Recommendation Gating

★ RecommendedFinal Score ≥ 70 and total Integrity Penalty < 25. Eligible for Top Match endorsement.

RankedScore 55–69 or Integrity Penalty 25–44. Shown in rankings without endorsement language.

⛔ Display OnlyTotal Integrity Penalty ≥ 45. Ranked for transparency — no endorsement issued for the race.

Evidence Tiers

Tier 1 — Highest TrustFEC filings · voting records · sponsored legislation · government financial disclosures · official state/federal records.

Tier 2 — Strong SecondaryReputable journalism · debate transcripts · civic org questionnaires · watchdog reporting.

Tier 3 — Self-ReportedCampaign websites · issue pages · speeches. Count toward Data Completeness and Position Clarity — cannot alone determine Donor Independence, Governance Competence, or Budget Feasibility.

Policy Visibility

Fully DocumentedDC ≥ 0.80 — Score confirmed by comprehensive multi-source evidence

Partially DocumentedDC 0.60–0.79 — Directionally accurate; some source gaps remain

Limited RecordDC < 0.60 — Insufficient public data; score may shift as record grows

Anti-gaming rules: More text ≠ better score — only concrete mechanism, implementation detail, or measurable commitment improves clarity. Campaign claims about donor independence are cross-checked against FEC data. Multiple aligned PACs are treated as a network. Low-information candidates do not benefit from invisibility. Integrity penalties are distinct from normal donor concentration — they apply only when documented fraud, foreign-interest, or governance-conflict patterns exist.

Ohio House Primaries 2026 — Candidate Transparency Report

Five competitive Ohio House districts — OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-13, and OH-15 — are all on the ballot May 5, 2026. Democrats are targeting all three Republican-held seats (Miller, Turner, Carey) while defending their two incumbents (Kaptur, Sykes) in Toss-up races. PoliVion scores every declared primary candidate on the same formula: policy clarity, donor independence, and governance fit. Not party affiliation or polling position.

Overview — Ohio House 2026 Battlegrounds

Ohio was required to redraw its congressional maps for 2026 after a constitutional amendment gave shorter expiration dates to maps passed without bipartisan support. The Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously approved a new map in October 2025. All 15 incumbents are running for re-election — no open seats. Democrats are targeting three Republican seats they believe are in reach given the anti-GOP political climate.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has explicitly named Max Miller (OH-07), Mike Turner (OH-10), and Mike Carey (OH-15) as targets. Meanwhile, Republicans see OH-09 (Kaptur) as flippable after a 2,300-vote margin in 2024, and OH-13 (Sykes) as a rematch opportunity with Coughlin carrying universal establishment backing.

District Summaries & Candidate Scores

🔵 OH-09 — DEMOCRATIC

Marcy Kaptur — Incumbent · PoliVion Score: 77% ✅ Recommended

43-year incumbent · Unopposed in primary · General: Toss-up

🔴 OH-09 — REPUBLICAN (5-way primary)

Derek Merrin — Frontrunner · Score: 68%

Josh Williams — State Rep · Score: 65%

Alea Nadeem — Air National Guard LTC · Score: 59%

+ Madison Sheahan (57%) · Anthony Campbell (47%)

🔵 OH-13 — DEMOCRATIC

Emilia Sykes — Incumbent · PoliVion Score: 75% ✅ Recommended

2-term incumbent · Unopposed in primary · General: Toss-up vs Coughlin

🔴 OH-13 — REPUBLICAN

Kevin Coughlin — Former state senator, lobbyist · Score: 52%

All 10 OH GOP congressmen + both senators backing him · Pay-to-play flag

🔵 OH-07 — DEMOCRATIC (8-way primary)

Ann Marie Donegan — Former mayor, nurse · Score: 64% ✅

Michael Eisner — Attorney · Score: 60%

+ 6 additional Dem candidates including Ed FitzGerald (former Cuyahoga County Executive)

🔴 OH-07 — REPUBLICAN

Max Miller — Incumbent · Score: 63%

Former Trump White House advisor · Won 51.1% in 2024 · DCCC target

🔵 OH-10 — DEMOCRATIC

Kristina Knickerbocker — Air Force vet, nurse · Score: 66% ✅

DCCC-preferred · Air Force + WPAFB background · Best Dem shot at OH-10 in 10 years

🔴 OH-10 — REPUBLICAN

Mike Turner — Incumbent · Score: 69%

12-term incumbent · Former HISC Chairman · Won by 18pts in 2024 · DCCC target

🔵 OH-15 — DEMOCRATIC

Adam Miller — Army Colonel, former state rep · Score: 71% ✅

2024 nominee · Strickland endorsed · Army JAG Colonel · DCCC target rematch

🔴 OH-15 — REPUBLICAN

Mike Carey — Incumbent · Score: 53%

Former coal lobbyist · Ways and Means seat · Won 56.5% in 2024 · DCCC target

The DCCC Strategy: Ohio as a Battleground

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has explicitly added Miller (OH-07), Turner (OH-10), and Carey (OH-15) to its 2026 target list. The DCCC framing: all three voted for or supported legislation that cuts Medicaid and SNAP while extending tax cuts for higher earners. In a midterm environment expected to favor Democrats — given historical patterns and Trump's approval rating — Ohio's competitive districts become genuine pick-up opportunities.

The DCCC has invested in recruiting credible challengers: Kristina Knickerbocker (OH-10) is the strongest Dem recruit in that district in over a decade, and Adam Miller (OH-15) is running a direct rematch after losing by 13 points in 2024. The 8-way Democratic primary in OH-07 reflects Democratic optimism about the district but also carries the risk of a divisive primary producing a weakened general election nominee.

No Israel Lobby Spending Documented

PoliVion tracks Israel lobby spending through TrackAIPAC. None of the five primary incumbents (Kaptur, Sykes, Miller, Turner, Carey) are documented on TrackAIPAC as members with AIPAC as a top contributor. The pay-to-play flags for Coughlin (OH-13) and Carey (OH-15) relate to their lobbying careers — not Israel lobby spending. No AIPAC direct PAC or UDP spending has been identified in any of these five primaries.

How Candidates Are Scored

PoliVion scores every candidate on the same formula using only publicly available evidence — FEC filings, voting records, campaign websites, and published policy documents.

Issue Alignment (25%) — How directly the candidate's platform addresses documented voter priorities
Donor Independence (25%) — Independence from concentrated donor influence, PAC dependence, and foreign-interest-adjacent funding
Data Completeness (15%) — Depth and verifiability of the candidate's public record
Position Clarity (10%) — Specificity of policy commitments vs. vague talking points
Budget Feasibility (10%) — Whether major proposals are realistic given stated funding
Governance Competence (15%) — Combines jurisdiction fit, execution capacity, and policy coherence

Ohio U.S. House Primaries 2026 (May 5, 2026)

Democratic Primary — OH-09 (Toledo / NW Ohio)

Republican Primary — OH-09 (Toledo / NW Ohio)

Democratic Primary — OH-13 (Akron / Summit County)

Republican Primary — OH-13 (Akron / Summit County)

Democratic Primary — OH-07 (Medina / Wayne / W. Cuyahoga)

Republican Primary — OH-07 (Medina / Wayne / W. Cuyahoga)

Democratic Primary — OH-10 (Dayton Metro · Wright-Patterson)

Republican Primary — OH-10 (Dayton Metro · Wright-Patterson)

Democratic Primary — OH-15 (SW Columbus Suburbs)

Republican Primary — OH-15 (SW Columbus Suburbs)

How PoliVion Scores Candidates

Ohio House Primaries 2026 — Candidate Transparency Report

Overview — Ohio House 2026 Battlegrounds

District Summaries & Candidate Scores

The DCCC Strategy: Ohio as a Battleground

No Israel Lobby Spending Documented

How Candidates Are Scored

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Ohio House districts are on the 2026 ballot?

When is the Ohio House primary 2026?

Why were Ohio's congressional maps redrawn?

Which Ohio districts does the DCCC consider targets?

Ohio U.S. House Primaries 2026 (May 5, 2026)

Democratic Primary — OH-09 (Toledo / NW Ohio)

Republican Primary — OH-09 (Toledo / NW Ohio)

Democratic Primary — OH-13 (Akron / Summit County)

Republican Primary — OH-13 (Akron / Summit County)

Democratic Primary — OH-07 (Medina / Wayne / W. Cuyahoga)

Republican Primary — OH-07 (Medina / Wayne / W. Cuyahoga)

Democratic Primary — OH-10 (Dayton Metro · Wright-Patterson)

Republican Primary — OH-10 (Dayton Metro · Wright-Patterson)

Democratic Primary — OH-15 (SW Columbus Suburbs)

Republican Primary — OH-15 (SW Columbus Suburbs)

How PoliVion Scores Candidates

Ohio House Primaries 2026 — Candidate Transparency Report

Overview — Ohio House 2026 Battlegrounds

District Summaries & Candidate Scores

The DCCC Strategy: Ohio as a Battleground

No Israel Lobby Spending Documented

How Candidates Are Scored

Related PoliVion Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Ohio House districts are on the 2026 ballot?

When is the Ohio House primary 2026?

Why were Ohio's congressional maps redrawn?

Which Ohio districts does the DCCC consider targets?