Louisiana holds its first closed partisan U.S. Senate primary on May 16, 2026 — replacing the state's long-standing jungle primary system (HB 17, 2024). Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy seeks a third term but faces the stiffest primary challenge of his career: President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, making Cassidy the only sitting GOP senator Trump is actively targeting for defeat. State Treasurer John Fleming — Freedom Caucus co-founder and Trump's former Deputy Chief of Staff — runs as a credible third contender. On the Democratic side, three candidates with real platforms and websites are running in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 2008.
This race has two very different stories. The Republican primary is the marquee contest of Louisiana's 2026 cycle — a three-way battle between Cassidy's $9.5M incumbency machine, Letlow's Trump endorsement, and Fleming's MAGA credentials and self-funded grassroots campaign. The central question is whether Louisiana Republican voters will punish Cassidy for his 2021 vote to convict Trump in the Senate impeachment trial, for which the Louisiana Republican Party formally censured him. Polling shows a genuinely competitive three-way race with no clear frontrunner, and the closed partisan primary format (only registered Republicans can vote) creates a more ideologically MAGA-aligned electorate than a jungle primary would have.
The Democratic primary has three candidates with real platforms and websites — a significant upgrade from the nominal-filer situation originally anticipated. Jamie Davis (third-generation row-crop farmer from Tensas Parish), Nick Albares (community leader and father of three), and Gary Crockett (Navy veteran and New Orleans businessman) are each running genuine campaigns. But no Democrat has won statewide Louisiana since Mary Landrieu's 2008 Senate victory, and Trump carried the state by 22 points in 2024. The Democratic nominee will face the Republican primary winner in November with no realistic path to victory.
Louisiana's switch from jungle primaries to closed partisan primaries (HB 17, signed by Gov. Landry in 2024) changes the dynamics significantly. In the old system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot regardless of party. Now Republicans vote only for Republican candidates and Democrats only for Democratic candidates. If no candidate wins a majority in the May 16 primary, the top two vote-getters advance to a June 27 runoff. The general election is November 3, with a potential general runoff on December 12.
Jamie Davis — 3rd-gen farmer · Tensas Parish · PoliVion Score: 65%
Nick Albares — Community leader · Father of three · PoliVion Score: 63%
Gary Crockett — Navy vet · New Orleans · PoliVion Score: 57%
John Fleming — State Treasurer · Freedom Caucus co-founder · PoliVion Score: 64%
Julia Letlow — U.S. Rep · Trump & Landry endorsed · PoliVion Score: 59%
Bill Cassidy — U.S. Senator (incumbent) · HELP Chair · PoliVion Score: 55%
Mark Spencer — "Guns & Bible" conservative · PoliVion Score: 43%
Background: Ph.D. in communications from University of South Florida. Former university administrator at ULM. Elected to Congress in 2021 special election after her husband Luke Letlow died of COVID-19 before being sworn in. Has won reelection twice, most recently with 62.9% in 2024. Serves on the House Appropriations Committee and Education & Workforce Committee.
2026 context: Trump endorsed on Jan 18, Landry endorsed Mar 4, 2026. Gave up her LA-05 House seat to run — a significant commitment signal. Campaign message: "Louisiana deserves a conservative Senator who will not waver." Heritage Foundation lifetime score: 75%. Rigamer poll (600 Republican likely voters): Letlow 57%, Cassidy 43% in hypothetical runoff. ⬤ Pro-Israel designation based on consistent House voting record.
Key legislation: Parents Bill of Rights Act (passed House 213-208), BUILD Act (infrastructure for small law enforcement), Farm Rescue Act of 2025, National Flood Insurance Program extension.
Controversy: Cassidy and Fleming both surfaced a 2020 video of Letlow supporting DEI expansion when she applied to be ULM president. Letlow says her views evolved: "I saw DEI being hijacked by the radical left." Also disclosed 100+ late stock trade filings, blamed on her financial adviser. Heritage score of 75% vs Cassidy's 62% — and nearly identical House voting records — makes the "liberal Letlow" attack from Cassidy look weak on the data.
Background: Family physician and Navy veteran. Co-founded the House Freedom Caucus alongside Jim Jordan, Ron DeSantis, and Mark Meadows. U.S. Representative for LA-04 from 2009–2017. Served in multiple Trump administration roles including Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House in the final year of Trump's first term. Elected Louisiana State Treasurer in 2023.
2026 context: First major candidate to announce against Cassidy (December 2024). Self-funded with a $2M personal loan plus $480K in outside contributions. 200+ volunteers, 10,000+ yard signs deployed statewide. JMC Analytics poll (Fleming-funded, Feb 2026): Fleming 26%, Letlow 25%, Cassidy 22%. Quantus Insights poll: Fleming 34%, Letlow 25%, Cassidy 20%.
Signature issue — Anti-CCS: Fleming has made opposition to carbon capture and sequestration his most distinctive policy. He argues that 70–90% of Louisianans oppose putting concentrated CO2 underground near their communities — particularly in south Louisiana where Black communities near proposed storage sites have raised environmental justice concerns. "Big Oil is pushing a 'green' fix that threatens Louisiana's land and livelihoods."
Platform: No taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security. Free-market energy policy. End sanctuary cities. Spending cuts via Freedom Caucus reconciliation framework. As State Treasurer: has audited state fiscal obligations and championed taxpayer accountability.
Background: Physician. Co-founded the Greater Baton Rouge Community Clinic. Louisiana State Senate 2006–2008. U.S. Representative for LA-06 from 2009–2015. U.S. Senator since January 2015. Currently chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee — one of the most powerful committee chairmanships for a Louisiana senator given the state's healthcare, workforce, and energy economy.
2026 context: The only sitting GOP senator Trump is actively targeting for defeat, per Axios. Censured by the Louisiana Republican Party after his 2021 impeachment conviction vote. Has $9.5M cash on hand — by far the most of any candidate in this race — and is backed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Running ads tying himself to Trump on the HALT Fentanyl Act. Public Opinion Strategies poll (Cassidy-funded): Cassidy 35%, Letlow 24%, Fleming 21%.
Legislative record: HALT Fentanyl Act (signed into law by Trump — Cassidy calls it one of his signature achievements). Delivered billions in federal infrastructure funding to Louisiana. Bipartisan gun safety bill (15 other GOP senators voted for it). Bipartisan infrastructure law (19 GOP senators voted for it). As HELP chair: oversees healthcare workforce, prescription drug pricing, and education policy. Pro-vaccine; has publicly criticized RFK Jr.'s decision to remove vaccine advisory committee members.
Primary path: Needs Letlow and Fleming to split the MAGA vote below 50% on May 16, preventing either from winning outright. Cassidy would then need to win the June 27 runoff — where a more consolidated Republican field narrows his chances further. Rigamer runoff poll shows him losing 43-57% to Letlow head-to-head. ⬤ Pro-Israel designation based on documented Senate voting record.
Jamie Davis (Tensas Parish) — Third-generation row-crop farmer. Self-described "independent-minded Democrat" who will put "Country over Party" like John McCain. Most economically detailed platform: reverse 2025 tax law changes that gave 60% of benefits to billionaires, Medicare option for all, rollback OBBA Medicaid cuts, lower drug prices via government buying power, strengthen antitrust, require industrial developers to pay their own energy infrastructure costs, invest in Mississippi River infrastructure. Genuinely rural Louisiana credibility — Tensas Parish. jamieforlouisiana.com
Nick Albares — Community leader, husband and father of three school-aged sons. Platform centers on working families: reverse $1T Medicaid cuts, expand Medicaid toward universal coverage, double the Earned Income Tax Credit, raise minimum wage, paid family leave, ban congressional stock trading, require billionaires to pay their fair share, expand early childhood education and childcare. Behavioral health: bolster opioid prevention, improve mental health services for children, reduce maternal mortality. nickforlouisiana.com
Gary Crockett (New Orleans) — Grew up in poverty in Tallulah. Navy veteran. Built a business in New Orleans. Thirteen published issue areas — the broadest issue coverage of the Democratic field: Jobs, Energy, Healthcare, Education, Affordability, Disaster Recovery, Veterans and Military, Constitutional Rights, Taxes, Elderly, Youth, Housing, Environmental. Phone: (504) 422-6100. crockettforlouisiana.com
Context: No Democrat has won statewide Louisiana since Mary Landrieu's 2008 Senate victory. Trump carried the state by 22 points in 2024. The Democratic nominee will face the Republican winner in November with no realistic path to victory. The primary nonetheless matters for party-building and identifying credible voices in the state.
Background: Belle Chasse, Louisiana. "Guns and Bible conservative." Fundraising via WinRed. Website: markforlouisiana.com. Phone: (504) 373-0163.
Platform: National abortion control act using federal taxing and regulatory power post-Dobbs. Mobilize and expand DHS; declare illegal aliens a national emergency. Vision for America: annex Canada, Greenland, Cuba, and "lands given away by Jimmy Carter" to make America "the largest Country in the whole history of the world." Active online forum at forums.markforlouisiana.com.
Viability: Not tracked in major polls. No significant fundraising documented. PoliVion Score 43% — lowest in Republican field, primarily due to BF 28 (platform proposals face severe constitutional and diplomatic barriers, particularly territorial annexation).
All three major Republican candidates hold broadly pro-Israel positions consistent with the national GOP. No dedicated pro-Israel independent expenditure spending has been documented in Louisiana's closed Republican primary as of April 2026. AIPAC's popup PAC strategy (deployed in Illinois Democratic primaries in 2026) has not been applied here. Pro-Israel designations are based on documented voting records only.
| Candidate | Israel Position | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow (R) | ⬤ Pro-Israel | Consistent pro-Israel votes during House tenure. Heritage score 75%. Listed on TrackAIPAC as 2026 Senate candidate. ip_foreign:8 applied. |
| Bill Cassidy (R) | ⬤ Pro-Israel | Documented Senate voting record — opposed Iran nuclear deal, cosponsored anti-UNSCR 2334 legislation. Listed in Jewish Political Guide. ip_foreign:8 applied. |
| John Fleming (R) | — Not Documented | No pro-Israel lobby spending or direct designation documented for this race as of April 2026. |
| Mark Spencer (R) | — Not Documented | No documented position identified. |
| Jamie Davis (D) | — Not Documented | No documented position. Democratic primary in Safe R state — not a lobby targeting environment. |
| Nick Albares (D) | — Not Documented | No documented position. |
| Gary Crockett (D) | — Not Documented | No documented position. |
PoliVion scores every candidate on the same formula using only publicly available evidence — FEC filings, voting records, campaign websites, and published policy documents. Scores reflect transparency and governance capacity, not ideology, party preference, or polling position.
The scoring system has two layers: a Base Score from six weighted components, and an Integrity Penalty subtracted for documented donor conflicts, fraud-linked relationships, or foreign-interest exposure.